A 90% win rate sounds unbeatable — and it's the easiest number in trading to manufacture. Take profits at +0.2R, let losers run to −5R, and you will win constantly right up until the month one loser erases twenty winners. Services advertising 90%+ win rates are usually doing precisely this, whether they know it or not.
The number that decides whether a strategy survives is expectancy: (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss). A 57% win rate with +2R winners against −1R losers gives (0.57 × 2) − (0.43 × 1) = +0.71R per trade. The 90% system above gives (0.90 × 0.2) − (0.10 × 5) = −0.32R per trade. The “worse” win rate makes money; the “better” one is structurally bankrupt.
This is why our published record shows the losses. On the track record you can see the real distribution — stop-outs at −1R sitting next to +2R and +3R target hits — and check the expectancy arithmetic yourself. Winners are structurally larger than losers because every published target sits at 2–3× the stop distance; the win rate only has to clear the breakeven line that structure implies, roughly 33%.
The habit to build: whenever you see a win rate, ask for the average winner and average loser in R before you feel anything. If those two numbers aren't offered, the win rate was chosen to impress you, not inform you.
Educational content, not financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Figures referenced from the live track record change as the record grows — that's what makes them worth referencing.
Sigmo publishes LONG/SHORT signals with exact entry, stop and targets on the 7 instruments that survived a cost-adjusted multi-year test — every outcome recorded on the public track record, losses included. Free tier: 2 signals a day, forever. No card required.
Educational analysis, not financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk of loss.